Category: Advisor Commentary
When Good News is Bad
My favorite analogy for passive investing describes two men sitting at a bar. One is drunk and the other sober. When the night is over the sober man leads the other home to make sure he gets there safely. Historically, hedge funds and active investors pored over financials, looked at P/E ratios, and listened to […]
April 2021 Market Letter
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments April had the largest one month rally of corn futures ever. Considering the 162 year history of corn futures, that is no small milestone. May Corn futures rallied $1.75¾ (31.1%) this month. In the process the front month soybean/corn ratio moved from 2.55 to 2.12 and May […]
Incredible Velocity Movement Between KC Wheat and Chicago Corn
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments As always, the month of March and the first quarter ended with the USDA’s release of their March 1 stocks report and their spring planting intentions report. These reports often have the potential to dramatically disrupt conventional wisdom and today’s report did not disappoint. For the past […]
February 2021 Grain Market Commentary
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments With only one trading day left in February, it’s clear that the spring acreage fight has captured the market’s attention. While old crop corn and soybeans struggled near highs that were set weeks ago, November soybeans and December corn raced to new contract highs yesterday. Through […]
Commodities: A Range of Opportunities for 2021 – Market Outlook
“With a new secular bull trend, Commodities are among the most attractive markets this year. This commodity environment could be an exceptional moment to be in a spread program.” The economic pendulum tends to be swinging towards commodities. The notion that low commodity prices are their own cure may be playing out in 2021[1], with […]
CTA Spotlight: Adalpha Asset Management
Diversified Short Term Program Overview “The whole reason my algorithms work, the way they work in all environments, they’ve been working so long is because I’m a prop trader. And that’s what a CTA doesn’t have on me. “ Gary Polony describes in his quiet office on the 38th floor of the Chicago Board of […]
Webinar on Market Volatility in the Covid era
Tune in October 7th at 4pm CDT to listen to Ernie Chan from QTS Capital and Damon Pavlatos talk about how they view and trade volatility around major world events. This event is sponsored in part by IASG Fund Services. Dr. Ernest Chan Damon Pavlatos Exogenous events affect the financial markets with downside volatility. Technical […]
Quantica Quarterly Insights – Why speed matters
The second half of Q1 2020 turned out to be one of the most volatile periods ever for financial markets. The intensity and speed of the equity market sell-off has been unprecedented and market volatility has reached higher levels than during the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. The design of systematic trend-following programs involves many different building blocks, such as signal generation models, the structure of the investment universe, risk allocation targets between different asset classes, risk management models and portfolio construction methodology.
Why does the Tail Reaper program work in times of market turmoil?
Guest post by Ernest Chan of QTS Capital Management As the name of our Tail Reaper program implies, it is designed to benefit from tail events. It did so (+20.07%) during August-December, 2015’s Chinese stock market crash (even though it trades only the E-mini S&P 500 index futures), it did so (+18.38%) during February-March 2018’s […]
Oil Flood – Case for $15 Oil
Guest post by Brent Belote of Cayler Capital Russia broke the oil market! Russia and the Saudis have entered into a dangerous game of chicken with each other. Russia is determined to punish US Oil Producers while the Saudis are attempting to force OPEC+ back in line. To simplify, Russia would not comply with OPEC+ […]
COMMODITIES A RANGE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2020
We consider grains to be one of the most exciting markets for this year, an increase in the U.S. grain export will support prices, but only if the U.S. dollar stabilizes or declines. Corn and Wheat seem to be at a discount from their previous years’ price average; a definitive US-China trade deal could impact grains to have sharp moves in the year. We also anticipate an inflow of institutional money into grains that will move futures prices of different expiration. This is an optimal environment for our trading program.
The Evolution of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Trend Following
The following is a guest post from Spring Valley Asset Management: Disclaimer: While investment in managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, it can also do the opposite and result in further losses in a portfolio. In addition, studies conducted on managed futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance […]
Everyone Loves a Comeback
In February 2018, markets looked pretty dire for many option writers. The VIX had spiked 250% in less than a week and options sold a few days before were selling for many multiples of their original value. The biggest firm in the space, LJM Partners, went under and some of the best names faltered. Tianyou […]