Quite a whippy week. Beans and wheat broke hard earlier in the week. Wheat broke on wetter forecasts and beans broke on all the distressed China cargos and import talk. Funds liquidated flat price beans and exited spreads. There was major unwinding going on. As the week wore on, there were more and more reports of wheat being ripped up (both HRW and SRW) as well as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia which provided support. Both US and Brazilian bean basis firmed, we continue to see positive bean and meal sales weeks, and crush margins remain strong – all providing support to old crop beans.

Corn – found support early in week on slower than expected planting progress and a fairly wet week/forecast. Planting was 6% complete vs 4 last year and 14 ave.

Wheat – down hard on wetter forecasts early in the week (that failed to materialize). Support came from talk of both SRW and HRW being abandoned/ripped up. Lack of moisture and forecasts for hot/windy conditions in the S Plains has the trade wondering if this is 2006.

Beans – strap on your seatbelt – there will bouts of liquidation as we saw this week. There were many rumors floating around and lots of import talk which spurred a “get me out” trade. By the end of the week, however, Brazil basis had firmed considerably and Dalian beans/meal were in new highs. We had positive bean sales (barely) and better than expected meal sales. Most are expecting crop year crush near 1710 milbus vs the USDA at 1685. Using 1710 and the USDA’s 1580 export forecast (which may below), imports would need to reach 90 milbus to end the year with 135 milbus carryout. There has been more selling out of Argentina on the rally. South America will have a longer tail (especially with the China cancellations) and US bean area ideas seem to be increasing. SX could eventually go a lot lower but old crop is still the focus and I don’t think it’s solved yet.