The stock market is at all-time highs, inflation is supposedly contained, unemployment reflects what is arguably considered full employment, and yet the Fed is cutting rates. Is the economy healthy or not? Despite massive government stimulus, the risk still exists, and the good news is that we can identify areas of concern. The bad news […]

Futures traders often do their best in discrete periods of significant market movements. So-called “Fat Tail Events” in a normal distribution happen more than statistics suggest. This observance documented in the Nassim Taleb bestseller “The Black Swan” posits that people underestimate the likelihood of crisis conditions. While nobody predicts these events well, we can identify […]

Black box trading sounds mysterious and scary for many. Tall tales of machines running amok or making mistakes that wipe out accounts make for good movies, but the reality is often much simpler. All good traders use rules to provide structure to their trading. This helps regulate emotions so they can make decisions quickly under […]