Red Oak Commodity Advisors : Investment Program

Summary

Red Oak's fundamental research disciplines attempt to step beyond the near term noise of leveraged volatile markets. The firm's research focus is on significant and somewhat longer-term market forces. Red Oak believes that the fundamental forces driving major price changes can be isolated and anticipated. The firm trades principally financial, currency, and physical commodity futures on commodity exchanges inside and outside the United States. It may also trade forward contracts through banks. With regard to financial futures, the firm's research focuses on the macroeconomic trends that affect financial markets, valuation levels, the level and rate of change in real interest rates, central bank policy, funding needs, the level and rate of change of profitability, overall financial leverage in the monetary system, and numerous other factors that affect the price level and volatility of equity and fixed income financial instruments. n the currency markets Red Oak concentrates its fundamental research on such factors as trade and budget levels and trends, political considerations, interest rate differentials and changes in interest rates, changes in marginal rates of return on capital in various countries, central bank policy, and many other factors that affect relative currency values and directional changes. Research regarding physical commodities focuses on macro-and micro-economic trends, supply and demand balances, substitution effects caused by relative price changes, political considerations, and changes in technology, weather, and numerous other factors that affect commodities prices. In addition to the foregoing, the firm prefers to take positions in futures contracts for commodities that have imputed positive returns, assuming that there are no changes in the cash markets. The firm employs risk control procedures in an effort to preserve capital and protect against material forecasting errors. To control risk, a predetermined dollar level of acceptable loss per position is calculated based on volatility and risk-reward dynamics. If this predetermined acceptable loss is exceeded, the position is closed. The firm is grounded in the belief that commodities and futures trading is an art and not an exact science. Therefore, while Red Oak may use computers for analysis or may engage in mathematical measurements or calculations designed to monitor market activity, reliance on entirely systematic or mechanical technical trading models would be inconsistent with the firm' s basic trading approach. Although Red Oak values the necessity of discipline in trading, it believes that success depends ultimately on the use of discretionary investment judgment by its principals. The raw materials that produce successful returns over time are skill, knowledge, timing, and instinct.

Investment Strategy

Red Oak’s trading strategy is driven by fundamentals: specifically, the firm’s strategy is grounded in Mr. Gerstein’s experience in and knowledge of the different commodity and commodity-related markets and the various fundamental factors which affect each of such markets. Thus, unlike many trading strategies now being employed by managed futures professionals, Red Oak’s approach is neither technically-based nor trend-following. Fundamental analysis, in general, is based on a study of factors external to the markets in predicting future prices. Such factors might include, among other things, supply and demand factors for a particular commodity, the economy of a particular country, government policies, domestic and foreign political and economic events and changing trade prospects. Fundamental analysis is premised on the concept that market prices frequently may not reflect (on a real time basis) the actual value of a commodity, although such value will eventually determine price levels. Technical analysis, on the other hand, is based upon the theory that a study of the markets themselves will provide a means of anticipating the external factors which affect the supply and demand of a particular commodity in order to predict future price trends. Technical analysis of the markets generally includes a study of, among other things, actual daily, weekly and monthly price fluctuations, volume variations and changes in open interest. The Red Oak Trading Strategy Red Oak’s fundamental research disciplines attempt to step beyond the near term “noise” of leveraged volatile markets. The firm’s research focus is on significant and somewhat longer-term market forces. Red Oak believes that the fundamental forces driving major price changes can be isolated and anticipated. The firm trades principally financial, currency, and physical commodity futures on commodity exchanges inside and outside the United States. Financial futures may include equity index futures and interest rate futures based both inside and outside the US. Physical futures include agricultural commodities, energies and metals. It may also trade forward contracts through banks. With regard to financial futures, the firm’s research focuses on the macroeconomic trends that affect financial markets, valuation levels, the level and rate of change in “real” interest rates, central bank policy, funding needs, the level and rate of change of profitability, overall financial leverage in the monetary system, and numerous other factors that affect the price level and volatility of equity and fixed income financial instruments. In the currency markets Red Oak concentrates its fundamental research on such factors as trade and budget levels and trends, political considerations, interest rate differentials and changes in interest rates, changes in marginal rates of return on capital in various countries, central bank policy, and many other factors that affect relative currency values and directional changes. Research regarding physical commodities focuses on macro-and micro-economic trends, supply and demand balances, substitution effects caused by relative price changes, political considerations, and changes in technology, weather, and numerous other factors that affect commodities prices. In addition to the foregoing, the firm prefers to take positions in futures contracts for commodities that have imputed positive returns, assuming that there are no changes in the cash markets. The firm employs risk control procedures in an effort to preserve capital and protect against material forecasting errors. To control risk, a predetermined dollar level of acceptable loss per position is calculated based on volatility and risk-reward dynamics. If this predetermined acceptable loss is exceeded, the position is closed. The firm is grounded in the belief that commodities and futures trading is an art and not an exact science. Therefore, while Red Oak may use computers for analysis or may engage in mathematical measurements or calculations designed to monitor market activity, reliance on entirely systematic or mechanical technical trading models would be inconsistent with the firm’s basic trading approach. Although Red Oak values the necessity of discipline in trading, it believes that success depends ultimately on the use of discretionary investment judgment by its principals. The raw materials that produce successful returns over time are skill, knowledge, timing, and instinct.

Risk Management

The firm employs risk control procedures in an effort to preserve capital and protect against material forecasting errors. To control risk, a predetermined dollar level of acceptable loss per position is calculated based on volatility and risk-reward dynamics. If this predetermined acceptable loss is exceeded, the position is closed. The firm is grounded in the belief that commodities and futures trading is an art and not an exact science. Therefore, while Red Oak may use computers for analysis or may engage in mathematical measurements or calculations designed to monitor market activity, reliance on entirely systematic or mechanical technical trading models would be inconsistent with the firm’s basic trading approach. Although Red Oak values the necessity of discipline in trading, it believes that success depends ultimately on the use of discretionary investment judgment by its principals. The raw materials that produce successful returns over time are skill, knowledge, timing, and instinct.