Trend Management USA

TM Global Macro Dynamic Program

Minimum Investment
Management Fee 0.00%
Performance Fee 0.00%


-Trading Description: TM's process could be characterized as a computer intensive quantitatively based strategy that seeks to forge resilient, asymmetric trading strategies shaped under the weight of massive quantities of high frequency simulations in uncertain or random environments. Strategies are stress tested for thousands of simulated years before deployed for production. TM utilizes a suite of proprietary quantitative and technical indicators and models to analyze the trading price activity of financial, equity and derivatives markets and their interrelationships in real-time. These indicators and models attempt to identify, quantify, and anticipate the short-term price direction of the futures contracts being traded. The time frames are short term in nature. The trading strategies, indicators and models utilized by TM may be revised from time to time as a result of ongoing research and development which seeks to devise new indicators, models and strategies, as well as to improve current methods. The trading strategies employed by TM are primarily intraday and short-term, with trades lasting from as little as a few minutes to as long as several days. Individual instruments may be traded several times in a single day, or not traded at all for several days, depending on market conditions. Ultimately, TM's trading is systematic and automated, the decisions are based on an extensive suite of quantitative and technical indicators and models, which generate buy and sell orders in real-time which are sent via a fix API to the respective exchanges. Contrary to the widely accepted Efficient Market Hypothesis which posits that all market participants or agents are fully informed, rational and profit seeking Trend Management Limited subscribes to a Fractal Market Hypothesis. The Fractal Market Hypothesis suggests, based on empirical observation that financial markets are made of heterogeneous agents with different time horizons. These different time horizons cause market participants to interpret and react to information flows in different ways. This heterogeneous makeup of the markets gives structure to the markets since different agents can be buying while others are selling. The FMH recognizes more heterogeneous markets as more robust and more homogeneous markets as more vulnerable to cascading effects. The Efficient Market Hypothesis does not make any comment on the relative superiority of a high frequency time frame versus a low frequency time frame; instead the EMH suggests all trading strategies are equally futile since the underlying data generating process is random. The FMH suggests that a trader's chosen time horizon can influence risk return characteristic of the trader. The FMH recognizes the markets as more fractured at progressively higher frequencies; the implication being so called 1 and 2 sigma events occur more often at higher frequencies. A monthly trader may see a 1 sigma every 3-6 months while a trader with 1 minute time horizon may see a 1 sigma opportunity every 9-12 hours. Finally the EMH sees diversification through asset class as the only path to risk/return modification. The EMH sees cash, bonds and equities as the building blocks of all portfolios. The more assets you own the more diversified and safer you are. The conventional wisdom that states, "the less you trade the better" is consistent with the EMH. The FMH is consistent with the wisdom that dictates "the more you trade the safer you are". Trend Management Limited seeks to capitalize on the Fractal nature of the markets by creating strategies which produce market like returns with half the variation of the market. Fractal Arbitrage: A systematic, dynamic hedging process achieved by trading combinations of synthetic cash, liquid derivatives and physical securities to produce (hedge) the payoff of a path dependent option, driven by the ubiquitous uncertainty or fractured nature of price movement found in financial markets. Outright market risk is not avoided but tight risk controls create short-lived market based exposures. Sophisticated mathematical and statistical models are used to identify and hedge trading opportunities. This specialized hedging requires frequent trading in order to maintain delta neutrality against an internal benchmark, which is the notional barrier option on price movement. Fractal Arbitrage is an investment process not influenced by the overall direction of the market prices but has the potential to produce stable returns with only minimal influence from market conditions. Principal's Background: Joseph R. Julian, Ph.D., DBA Trend Management USA. Dr. Julian has fourteen years of experience trading financial markets and has worked as an associated person and registered investment advisor for brokerage firms in both futures and securities. He joined Rosenthal-Collins Group, an FCM (April, 1999 to October, 2000) as a registered futures broker and director of systems. He was a registered securities broker and advisor for White International, a securities firm in San Francisco, CA (from November, 2000 to January 2002). In January 2002 he joined Witenberg Investment Companies, Inc. a securities firm and (affiliate of Goldman Sachs Clearing) where he traded institutional block orders in equities as a registered securities broker until April 2004. He became a principal and portfolio manager for Onda Capital Management, Inc., a registered CTA in commodity futures, (April, 2004 to January 2005). Dr. Julian became an advisor for Trend Management USA. (February 2005 to present). He is registered with the CFTC as a principal and associated person of the CTA and is a member of the NFA in such capacity. He is licensed with series 7,63,65,55,24,4, and 3 licenses. Dr. Julian received a doctorate in statistical analysis of wave cycles relating to digital sound processing in music from the University of California, San Diego. He received awards from the Rockefeller Foundation and the National Endowment, Washington D.C. for his original research. He has lectured at the University of Hartford Connecticut, UCLA, UCSD, USC, and the Open University, London. Nikolas Joyce, Director of Research, joined the firm in 1996. He holds a degree in Finance from the University of British Columbia. Stephen Pickering has been with the firm since 1996. He holds a degree in Science from the University of British Columbia and is a technology specialist. Jaro Kavalar holds a Master in Mathematics and has served as chief programmer since 1995. Paul Joyce established Trend Management Ltd. In 1969 as a family office and has acted as chief investment officer since inception of the firm. Linda Joyce, Treasurer. Gurit Basra, Dave Berg, and Sandi Smith, operations and administration.