“The hardest thing to explain is the glaringly evident which everybody has decided not to see.” Ayn Rand
The table is a shortlist of issues that should cause concern for any investor. However, the growing problem is that many are not focusing on the broader return implications for these risks, the chance for contagion, and second-order effects. Perhaps we have not had the right catalysts to create focus. Perhaps we are being too dramatic in the current risk-on environment, or these are just not big problems.
Nevertheless, these issues keep me up at night, and they have not been given enough weight when measuring the potential return to risk for even diversified portfolios.
Running on a treadmill is one of my least favorite activities: you expend a lot of energy but end up exactly where you started, only out of breath. So far in 2026, financial markets are behaving similarly. There’s intense activity, but the major indices have gone almost nowhere. As of mid-February, the S&P 500 is […]
Investors face many choices when selecting investments. Historically, the main divide was between fundamental and technical trading. The growth of computer systems for trading has introduced a potentially larger variable that will only increase as AI advances, whether in systematic (rules-based) or discretionary (human judgment) trading. In just my 20 years working in the industry, […]
Is AI the next step in the evolution of trading? History proves new tools storm the markets, then high adoption erases their edge. What can futures trading history teach us about AI’s trajectory? The 1980s: Rise of Rules-Based Trading Building on simple regression models that aimed to identify patterns across sectors, the 1980s showed that […]