I have fewer concerns this week; however, there is significant risk with inflation. Inflation is growing around the world. We are pass 2% in the US by any number of measures. Let the overshoot begin. There is little reason so see the Fed changing their behavior and there is a stronger case for further money reduction around the world. The trade rhetoric is still high and there is general agreement that further trade action will slow growth, yet we continue to move down this path.
Nevertheless, good earnings can still make investors happy regardless of the macro environment. I have focused on a number of other issues that caught my attention from music sales, retirement, and central bank language ambiguity.
After hundreds of discussions with hedge fund managers, I am still surprised that there is a fear of revealing investment processes under the assumption that someone will steal their ideas and intellectual capital. There are few investment styles that are truly unique and special. What is special is still strategy execution – the practical process of delivering returns. Skill is with the decision-making execution of information and strategy.
All hedge funds are not created equal as the return box chart shows for the post Financial Crisis period. There is a significant amount of dispersion across hedge fund styles. Over the period 2009-2018, the difference between the best and worst hedge fund category is almost 7 percent after we account for global equities and bonds.
The attraction to private equity and other less liquid alternatives is clear from the Guide to Alternatives by JP Morgan Asset Management. The return profile is much higher for private equity and debt funds than more liquid alternatives and global bonds; however, the dispersion in returns is multiples higher than what can be expected from other public categories.
