Using a combination of short, intermediate, and long-term trends across the major markets within a sector, we make judgments on potential trend behavior for the coming month. Our signals are surprisingly mixed as we move into the post-Labor Day period. While there are some upward and downward biased sectors, all seem more range bound with no consistency between short and longer-term trends. This was after a good trading month in August.

  • US equity markets continue to move higher although global markets are not showing the same pattern.
  • Bonds are mixed given the risk-on environment and the demand for safety on an international level. Rates are consistent with steady central bank policies.
  • Currencies reflect the risk in EM, but the dollar rally seems to have lost the momentum seen earlier in the summer.
  • Precious metals markets have continued to negatively correlate with dollar movements while base metal price directions are mixed on global growth prospects.
  • Energy prices have not exceeded highs from earlier in the summer and commodities have been more sensitive to tariff talks.

Markets may be subject to break-outs this month, but current price action does not point in any strong direction.