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Navigating Economic Crossroads: A Closer Look at the Unconventional Path

In the famous Robert Frost poem “The Road Not Taken,” two paths diverged, and he took the one less traveled. We can look at charts of the US economy and compare them to previous periods to see that so far, we are taking the less traveled path as well. It makes all the difference. Despite […]

Cboe Mini VIX
Alternative Investment Strategy

Mini-VIX: A Game Changer

The VIX, or Volatility Index, is one of the most frequently mentioned acronyms in financial news. This prominence is well-justified, given that the VIX serves as a crucial indicator of market risk and is instrumental to the pricing of options, which exerts a profound impact across the financial landscape. Furthermore, trading activity related to the […]

Advisor Commentary

Cargo Collapse Chronicles: Navigating the Economic Storm through Freight Industry Signals

Economists often look for the proverbial “canaries in the coal mine” to predict where we head next. Specific areas of the economy tend to presage slowing growth earlier than others. The shipping of materials from one place to another is one such area. A supply chain is either gearing up for future sales or reducing […]

Wheat
Advisor Commentary

Ag Market Update: Wheat Prices Drop, China Becomes Top Wheat Importer, and Soybean Complex Dynamics

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments For corn and soybeans, it was a quiet harvest month as far as prices were concerned. Futures contracts for both crops had only 5-7% trading ranges and settled within 1% of where they were a month ago. The U.S. harvest is progressing well, with both crops ahead […]

Up Down Arrows
Alternative Investment Strategy

Where Will the Money Come From? The Growing Debt Dilemma in Developed Economies

“When low-income countries get into debt distress, it’s associated with protracted recessions, high inflation, and fewer resources going to essential sectors like health, education, and social safety nets, with a disproportionate impact on the poor” – World Bank.  It is no secret that developed countries spent trillions to insulate themselves from the effects of the […]

Tail
Alternative Investment Strategy

Looming Financial Challenges Facing Americans Amidst Government Shutdown Threats and Inflation

As we approach another government shutdown here in the United States, another segment of the population is also navigating a challenging path. Dwindling savings, exacerbated by record inflation, is depleting their spending power. It is important to note that they have not actually stopped spending yet, but they ran out of surplus funds months ago, […]

Wheat
Advisor Commentary

USDA’s Grain Reports: Wheat Surprises, Corn Holds Steady, and Ethanol Controversy Emerges

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The last business day of September always brings us the USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports. Traditionally, in these reports, most of the big surprises have been in the corn or soybean stocks, where an unexpected number can trigger a corresponding change in their estimate of […]

CTA

Key Considerations for Aspiring CTAs: Launching and Growing a Futures Trading Program

We speak regularly with aspiring CTAs and those who recently started their program. This is an important part of our value as a database provider and asset raiser for our traders. More importantly, it is a benefit to our investment customers. After all, finding new talent with the ability to generate returns and learning about […]

Wheat
Advisor Commentary

Bearish August for Grain Futures: Corn Down, Soybeans Up, and Wheat Takes a Hit

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments August was a bearish month for grain futures, with corn and wheat making their highs on August 2nd and lows on the 30th or 31st. Nearby corn and wheat futures traded to their lowest level since December 2020. Soybean futures, meanwhile, had almost the opposite experience, making their lows […]

Alternative Investment Strategy

China and the United States: A Collision Course of Aspirations and Dependencies

The world is currently experiencing a convergence of tumultuous events, which seems quite rare. Amidst this backdrop, the two foremost players appear to be on a collision course. China, an ascending power, wants to establish itself on the world’s stage and increase its influence. To realize this vision, China is aligning itself with nations with […]

patterns
Alternative Investment Strategy

The Fitch Rating Downgrade and the Looming Concerns for US Debt and Economy

On August 2, 2023, Fitch Ratings cut the outlook for US debt from AAA to AA+. While still considered one of the safest investments, it is a sign that despite a widespread belief in Keynesian economic principles, where each dollar expended yields multiples in benefits, we may encounter a reality check following the massive spending […]

black and white buildings
Alternative Investment Strategy

Real Estate Trends in a Post-Pandemic World: Unexpected Market Reactions

Following the 2008 housing bust, logic would suggest that a more significant increase in mortgage rates might similarly impact home prices and send prices falling. Surprisingly, this is not happening, and the reasons could have far-reaching effects. This is bad news for prospective home buyers who now face a double whammy of rising interest rates […]

Alternative Investment Strategy

The Rise and Fall of Rome: Lessons for Today’s World

Visiting a place like Rome, where history permeates every corner, is truly a remarkable experience. The juxtaposition of ancient columns alongside “modern” apartment buildings and the view of centuries-old defensive walls en route to savor gelato exemplify the captivating allure of this city. However, it is within the magnificent structures such as the Colosseum and […]

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