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Financial Resolutions in the Election Year: A 2023 Market Recap and Insights for 2024
Much like weight loss or finding more time to read, including financial planning in your resolutions for 2024 is a great idea. It is an election year in the United States, which means we will see a lot of promises. If history is an indicator, there will be a positive return for the S&P. Twenty-four […]
The Sweet Dilemma of 2024: The Rising Costs and Complexities of the Chocolate Industry
While grocery prices grab the headlines, chocolate might be the story of 2024. The standout trend of 2023 was one that most people overlooked in their day-to-day lives. Cocoa futures surged over 70%1 for the year, and this rally2 seems to have staying power. Smaller trend managers benefited from seizing this opportunity, unlike larger programs […]
Navigating Economic Crossroads: A Closer Look at the Unconventional Path
In the famous Robert Frost poem “The Road Not Taken,” two paths diverged, and he took the one less traveled. We can look at charts of the US economy and compare them to previous periods to see that so far, we are taking the less traveled path as well. It makes all the difference. Despite […]
Mini-VIX: A Game Changer
The VIX, or Volatility Index, is one of the most frequently mentioned acronyms in financial news. This prominence is well-justified, given that the VIX serves as a crucial indicator of market risk and is instrumental to the pricing of options, which exerts a profound impact across the financial landscape. Furthermore, trading activity related to the […]
Cargo Collapse Chronicles: Navigating the Economic Storm through Freight Industry Signals
Economists often look for the proverbial “canaries in the coal mine” to predict where we head next. Specific areas of the economy tend to presage slowing growth earlier than others. The shipping of materials from one place to another is one such area. A supply chain is either gearing up for future sales or reducing […]
Ag Market Update: Wheat Prices Drop, China Becomes Top Wheat Importer, and Soybean Complex Dynamics
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments For corn and soybeans, it was a quiet harvest month as far as prices were concerned. Futures contracts for both crops had only 5-7% trading ranges and settled within 1% of where they were a month ago. The U.S. harvest is progressing well, with both crops ahead […]
Where Will the Money Come From? The Growing Debt Dilemma in Developed Economies
“When low-income countries get into debt distress, it’s associated with protracted recessions, high inflation, and fewer resources going to essential sectors like health, education, and social safety nets, with a disproportionate impact on the poor” – World Bank. It is no secret that developed countries spent trillions to insulate themselves from the effects of the […]
Looming Financial Challenges Facing Americans Amidst Government Shutdown Threats and Inflation
As we approach another government shutdown here in the United States, another segment of the population is also navigating a challenging path. Dwindling savings, exacerbated by record inflation, is depleting their spending power. It is important to note that they have not actually stopped spending yet, but they ran out of surplus funds months ago, […]
USDA’s Grain Reports: Wheat Surprises, Corn Holds Steady, and Ethanol Controversy Emerges
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The last business day of September always brings us the USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports. Traditionally, in these reports, most of the big surprises have been in the corn or soybean stocks, where an unexpected number can trigger a corresponding change in their estimate of […]
Key Considerations for Aspiring CTAs: Launching and Growing a Futures Trading Program
We speak regularly with aspiring CTAs and those who recently started their program. This is an important part of our value as a database provider and asset raiser for our traders. More importantly, it is a benefit to our investment customers. After all, finding new talent with the ability to generate returns and learning about […]
Bearish August for Grain Futures: Corn Down, Soybeans Up, and Wheat Takes a Hit
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments August was a bearish month for grain futures, with corn and wheat making their highs on August 2nd and lows on the 30th or 31st. Nearby corn and wheat futures traded to their lowest level since December 2020. Soybean futures, meanwhile, had almost the opposite experience, making their lows […]
China and the United States: A Collision Course of Aspirations and Dependencies
The world is currently experiencing a convergence of tumultuous events, which seems quite rare. Amidst this backdrop, the two foremost players appear to be on a collision course. China, an ascending power, wants to establish itself on the world’s stage and increase its influence. To realize this vision, China is aligning itself with nations with […]
The Fitch Rating Downgrade and the Looming Concerns for US Debt and Economy
On August 2, 2023, Fitch Ratings cut the outlook for US debt from AAA to AA+. While still considered one of the safest investments, it is a sign that despite a widespread belief in Keynesian economic principles, where each dollar expended yields multiples in benefits, we may encounter a reality check following the massive spending […]