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Wheat
Advisor Commentary

November 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments With the arrival of winter in the northern hemisphere, a majority of market observers have turned their attention toward the production prospects in the southern hemisphere, where Brazil, Argentina, and Australia dominate. Australia’s leading crop is wheat, and they are on track to produce their third large […]

Falling
Alternative Investment Strategy

Prices Aren’t Falling

Inflation fell according to the last CPI (Consumer Price Index) report in the United States, setting off a furious 5% rally in equities as Fed policy finally takes hold. However, according to Forbes, prices increased 0.4% month over month, bringing the rate down to 7.7% on an annualized basis, which they believe is reason to […]

Galaxy
Alternative Investment Strategy

Managed Account Platforms: An Easy Way to Invest

Want access to some of the largest programs in the world at a lower entry point? Typically, investment options come through either a separately managed account with high minimums or a fund product with limited liquidity and less flexibility than a standard futures account. A managed account platform bridges this gap by offering increased liquidity, […]

Corn field
Advisor Commentary

October 2022 Opus Futures Ag Commentary

Commentary provided by David Zelinski of Opus Futures. In last month’s commentary, we went through a few reasons why grain and oilseed prices were likely to come under some pressure. We pointed out the low river water levels, which were restricting export capacity and the usual seasonal harvest pressure on prices. The river situation has played […]

grain
Advisor Commentary

October 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments After months of high volatility and wide daily and weekly trading ranges, the agricultural markets settled down considerably in October. Corn and soybean futures were particularly docile, with corn volatility falling to a two-year low and soybean volatility to a one-year low. The monthly trading range in […]

Volatility
Alternative Investment Strategy

Manager Volatility: Friend or Foe?

Investors generally do an excellent job of looking at their equity allocations at the portfolio level. A single stock that drops 30% in an otherwise steady(ish) overall plan rarely gets much focus. On the other hand, a futures program that dropped 30% would often net a lot of attention. Some of this might be attributable […]

Bull wearing mask
Alternative Investment Strategy

Looking for a Hiding Place?

Is the equity market giving you heartburn? Bond market too? Perhaps traditional asset classes lulled us into a false sense of confidence. After all, since 2008, outside of a few hiccups, returns provided ample reason to believe that our portfolios were destined to keep growing. But, as a trader once said to me, “Sometimes trading […]

Advisor Commentary

September 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The last business day of September always brings the USDA’s report of September 1st U.S. grain stocks, the end of the previous crop year. This report has often yielded surprises that force a change in the last fall’s crop size and create significant moves in the futures […]

patterns
Alternative Investment Strategy

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

The Efficient Market Hypothesis, introduced by Benoit Mandelbrot and popularized by Eugene Fama, infers that investing markets reflect all information to determine prices. Therefore, if the Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, the current market levels should reflect that consideration. This also means that nobody should be able to “beat the […]

oil
Alternative Investment Strategy

What Happened Next? Updates to previous blog articles.

We addressed the looming energy crisis in Europe in several articles, including the “War on Low Energy Prices,” It appears the day of reckoning is quickly approaching. However, they are choosing paths that I did not anticipate. In reaction to Russia closing the pipeline, the Europeans proposed two solutions; capping the amount that Russia would […]

wheat bombing
Advisor Commentary

August 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments We opened the month of August with all eyes on the M/V Razoni, the first vessel to sail out of Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February. The Razoni and at least 64 other vessels traveled safely through the corridors the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine agreed […]

Winter inflation gas
Alternative Investment Strategy

The “COVID-19 Bankruptcy Gap”

Where did the bankruptcies go? Despite the world locking down, the expected spate of business failures did not materialize as expected. In fact, they barely showed up at all. According to Matt Taunt of Taunt Law Firm, a Michigan-based firm specializing in the area, “Filings fell off a cliff in 2020 to lows not seen […]

Corn field
Advisor Commentary

July 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The themes of uncertainty and volatility that have been with us for most of 2022 did not leave us during July. Some root causes, like the war in Ukraine, have been with us for many months, but new risks and unexpected developments have impacted the agricultural markets […]

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