Soybean values traded lower across the board today with July 15’ settling at 9.22 ½ off 1 ¾ cents (New contract lows). Corn also showed weakness today closing down 5 cents at 3.55 with Wheat values plummeting 21 ¾ cents closing at 4.93 ¼, pegging in a new 7 day low.
Rains continue to fall which has now become an obstacle to planting progress with the trade estimating the national soybean planting pace will fall somewhere around 61% on tonight’s report, 2% below the five year average pace. More moisture is expected next week in the belt which may cause next week’s planting progress falling further behind the normal clip. Some analysts are now calling for a shift of one to two million acres of corn into soy due to the wet conditions that have been dealt to producers so far this year. More acres and some yield reduction is still setting up US stocks to be at vexing levels next year. Taking all fundamental data into account – we may see futures leaning toward the $8.75 or less area in the near future. The US dollar rolled higher today hitting 97.770 up 1.297 with Crude backing off the $60.00 level closing down $1.41 at $58.31. Funds are estimated to be short a record 92,000 contracts of soybeans, 9,000 Meal, and long 23,000 oil. National soybean crop conditions are expected out next week.
Technically, there is nothing in our opinion to stop beans from continuing their freefall expect possibly a weather scare, which just doesn’t seem to be in the cards, for the time being. Values currently trading below all key moving averages, and downward momentum is increasing after taking out the key $9.35 support level. Volatility does continue to drift lower but still slightly above the longer term mean average. Short term key support now comes in at $9.00 with the prior support point of $9.35 becoming resistance. No short term chart patterns that are appealing, however a possible longer term double bottom may be in the works.
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Soybeans: July 15