Commentary provided by Mark Adams of Warrington Asset Management The net return of the S&P 500 Index (“S&P”) for July once again masked a series of domestic and global undercurrents that had the potential to negatively impact the world economy. In the end, none of those contributors had the ability to derail the ongoing rally […]
Commentary provided by Todd Delay of Gamma Q Further consolidation occurred in July with range bound trading for corn and soybeans. Wheat was the leader with deteriorating conditions across many areas, particularly the Northern Plains supporting price. The July WASDE report reduced wheat stocks by nearly 100 million bushels and we feel further reductions need […]
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments Released: August 1st, 2021 We came into July on the heels of a huge price rally caused by the USDA’s June 30th acreage report. Their estimates for corn and soybean plantings were both more than a million acres below the average of the analysts’ estimates. Those rallies […]
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments Released: Wednesday, June 30, 2021 In our May Market Letter we wrote about the exceptional volatility in the agricultural futures markets. June showed us that May was just a warmup. In May corn had seen a 3.5% break and a 3.9% rally in a very short time […]
My favorite analogy for passive investing describes two men sitting at a bar. One is drunk and the other sober. When the night is over the sober man leads the other home to make sure he gets there safely. Historically, hedge funds and active investors pored over financials, looked at P/E ratios, and listened to […]
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments April had the largest one month rally of corn futures ever. Considering the 162 year history of corn futures, that is no small milestone. May Corn futures rallied $1.75¾ (31.1%) this month. In the process the front month soybean/corn ratio moved from 2.55 to 2.12 and May […]
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments As always, the month of March and the first quarter ended with the USDA’s release of their March 1 stocks report and their spring planting intentions report. These reports often have the potential to dramatically disrupt conventional wisdom and today’s report did not disappoint. For the past […]
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments With only one trading day left in February, it’s clear that the spring acreage fight has captured the market’s attention. While old crop corn and soybeans struggled near highs that were set weeks ago, November soybeans and December corn raced to new contract highs yesterday. Through […]
“With a new secular bull trend, Commodities are among the most attractive markets this year. This commodity environment could be an exceptional moment to be in a spread program.” The economic pendulum tends to be swinging towards commodities. The notion that low commodity prices are their own cure may be playing out in 2021, with […]
Diversified Short Term Program Overview “The whole reason my algorithms work, the way they work in all environments, they’ve been working so long is because I’m a prop trader. And that’s what a CTA doesn’t have on me. “ Gary Polony describes in his quiet office on the 38th floor of the Chicago Board of […]
Tune in October 7th at 4pm CDT to listen to Ernie Chan from QTS Capital and Damon Pavlatos talk about how they view and trade volatility around major world events. This event is sponsored in part by IASG Fund Services. Dr. Ernest Chan Damon Pavlatos Exogenous events affect the financial markets with downside volatility. Technical […]
The second half of Q1 2020 turned out to be one of the most volatile periods ever for financial markets. The intensity and speed of the equity market sell-off has been unprecedented and market volatility has reached higher levels than during the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. The design of systematic trend-following programs involves many different building blocks, such as signal generation models, the structure of the investment universe, risk allocation targets between different asset classes, risk management models and portfolio construction methodology.
Why is a trend-following strategy profitable in a crisis? A simple example will suffice. If a short trade is triggered when the return (from some chosen benchmark) exceeds -1%, then the trade will be very profitable if the market ends up dropping -4%. Vice versa for a long trade. (As recent market actions have demonstrated, prices exhibit both left and right tail movements in a crisis.) The trick, of course, is to find the right benchmark for the entry, and to find the right exit condition.