Bulls had something to cheer about to finish off last week’s trading in the Cattle markets after Thursday’s limit higher move followed by a $2-3 rally on Friday. However, the Friday afternoon USDA news was somewhat of a letdown, with the choice beef cutout coming in off $3.02 and the monthly COF (Cattle on Feed) […]
Sugar #11- May15 Futures – In yesterday’s trading session Sugar future values were strongly influenced by the exchange rate movement in Brazil. This is the first time since March of 2004 that the dollar quote fell below $3, closing at R$2.967 (-1.3%).
Crude oil bulls had a brilliant day on Thursday, with the oil complex posting strong gains. Brent crude finished at $64.83while WTI closed at $57.66. With the market sailing above the 100-day MA last week, a review of the continuation chart gives a perspective on what the bulls might be targeting in the longer term. […]
It appears shoulder season is coming to an end in the natural gas markets. NOAA’s 6-10 and 8-14 forecasts are showing above normal temperatures for the western half of the nation. These temperatures have the chance of shifting east giving the US its first taste of summer. Shoulder season is a time during the spring […]
Oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. June WTI finished the day down $1.26 at $56.62 a barrel while June Brent settled at $62.08 down $1.37 on the day. After being up each day last week and making new highs for the year, oil has been consolidating these gains early this week due to a lack […]
I think this article on trading and the markets will slightly differ from anything you have read in that the main focus is “Losing.” So, why an article on losing? First, I believe that people learn the most from their mistakes or through adversity if they are willing to open their eyes and confront what’s […]
Surprisingly strong grain and oilseed prices in recent months bring to mind a joke: One man inquires of another, who’s on hands and knees beneath a streetlight, “Have you lost something?” to which is answered, “My contact lens.” “Where did you lose it?” asks the one. “Over there,” responds the prone, while pointing afar. “Then why are you looking here?” “Because the light’s better.”
Small CTAs getting squeezed out of representation at the NFA At the upcoming 2015 NFA Board Elections, the nomination committee has decided to run giants Winton and AQR against local heroes James Koutoulas and John Roe of CCC fame. Where would former MF Global customers be without all of their efforts? CTA/CPO representation would then be […]
CTAs are always looking for opportunities to provide their firms additional exposure. Since IASG compiles data within our database, we thought it was relevant to provide CTAs with more marketing power when trying to reach their investing audience. Starting later this month, IASG will provide CTAs with access to a badge for ranking in the categories that meet their trading program. These categories include: discretionary, systematic, agriculture, Trend Following, Stock Index. The rankings badges will be provide monthly to the CTA for using on their email signature, embedding in their website, or within their marketing literature. Users of the IASG database will also get access to these badges on the CTA pages located in the right sidebar of the program page.
The sweeping nature of this summer’s price declines in grains and oilseeds has at every moment been dependent on unusual season-long consistency of rainfall and below-average temperatures. Owing to many years of observing sudden weather changes generate wrenching turnarounds in direction of futures, the managers felt that committing to price direction was tantamount to forecasting weather. Monthly returns remained flat, but the two successful trades were strategies formulated to end-run weather risk.
Until the end of last month and as outlined in June’s letter, calm and confidence was not only reflected in the equity markets but in numerous gauges related to U.S financial conditions and the shadow banking system. In this context a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta attempts to measure the shadow Federal Funds Rate (“SFFR’) based on a model that was developed from Wu and Xia. Since December 2008 the Federal Funds Rate has been in the 0 to ¼ percent range targeted by the Federal Open Market Committee. This 50 page research report is used to summarize the macroeconomic effect of unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound. In the bank’s own words; “The result gives us a tool for measuring the effect on monetary policy at zero lower bounds”. Based on their analysis the SFFR level had roughly flat lined for two years ending July 2013 in the range of -1.25 to -1.5%, but in the past year declined sharply and in the past two months has hovered in the vicinity of -3.00%. The extremely low levels on the SFFR had a beneficial impact on several other Federal Reserve reports that reflect US financial health. Composites of these measures from government reports were detailed month as they were at the most favorable levels in 20 years. The liquidity spigot is not just domestically evident, the shadow banking system in Europe has surged as well.
After persistent rain-delayed spring planting, a clearing window allowed its completion – and consistently excellent crop-development weather has prevailed since. On May 18 U.S. planting was decidedly behind average pace, verging on price bullishness, but only a week later it had leapt ahead. About 90% of the Corn Belt received normal to above-average spring rainfall, which together with moderate temperatures has supercharged growth progress. The result is no less than a sea change in prices which have been kept high in recent years by harvests lagging amid demand growth.
Markets did not do a whole lot for most of the month until the stocks and acreage report on the last trading day of the month/quarter. It was easy to get chopped around, and I did. I was having a hard time staying with any positions or ideas. New crop beans wouldn’t break and old […]