Corn: (July Corn Futures) – Values managed to edge higher by ½ cent on today’s session settling at $3.61 even after the USDA analysts chose not to upwardly adjust new crop yield estimates leaving them at 166.8 bu/acre. This is the second highest yield now on the books, however the trade may see this as a pulled-back estimate of new crop production potential. To note, the USDA disregarded their prior model that integrated rapid planting to increase the potential yield forecast. Tonight’s stats pegged the national corn crop at 75% planted (wow) vs. 55% last year and 57% being the average. A couple examples: Illinois at 88% vs. 64% average, Minnesota 95% vs. 50% avg. and all southern states are rallying up to a normal planting pace. An impelling weather forecast continues however with recurrent moisture possibly hindering general field work. Funds now short 138,000 contracts while the export forecast has now been increased to 25 million. Carryout is now seen decreasing to 1746 from 1851 while new crop feed use is being penciled in up 50 and exports higher by 75 million for a record total demand base of 13.76 billion. The trade could possibly become vexed over total feed use from both this year and next, surmising the numbers are overstated, which may open the door for US ending stocks close to 2 billion bushels in duo crop years.
Technically, July 15 Corn futures settled at $3.61 up ½ cent and continuing its long and short term down trend. Volatility continues to decline almost matching its lowest level in over a year which may signal an attractive low risk entry signal. Values remain well below all key moving averages with $3.47 being big support and if price manages to rally $3.70 will be the first area to come into play as resistanc
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Corn: July 15