Category: Alternative Investment Strategy

Investors generally do an excellent job of looking at their equity allocations at the portfolio level. A single stock that drops 30% in an otherwise steady(ish) overall plan rarely gets much focus. On the other hand, a futures program that dropped 30% would often net a lot of attention. Some of this might be attributable […]

Is the equity market giving you heartburn? Bond market too? Perhaps traditional asset classes lulled us into a false sense of confidence. After all, since 2008, outside of a few hiccups, returns provided ample reason to believe that our portfolios were destined to keep growing. But, as a trader once said to me, “Sometimes trading […]

The Efficient Market Hypothesis, introduced by Benoit Mandelbrot and popularized by Eugene Fama, infers that investing markets reflect all information to determine prices. Therefore, if the Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, the current market levels should reflect that consideration. This also means that nobody should be able to “beat the […]

We addressed the looming energy crisis in Europe in several articles, including the “War on Low Energy Prices,” It appears the day of reckoning is quickly approaching. However, they are choosing paths that I did not anticipate. In reaction to Russia closing the pipeline, the Europeans proposed two solutions; capping the amount that Russia would […]

Where did the bankruptcies go? Despite the world locking down, the expected spate of business failures did not materialize as expected. In fact, they barely showed up at all. According to Matt Taunt of Taunt Law Firm, a Michigan-based firm specializing in the area, “Filings fell off a cliff in 2020 to lows not seen […]

If you find someone who thinks it is smart to go without insurance for their house, you might think they are insane. After all, our home is a large asset, protects our family’s safety, and provides the comfort of a roof over our heads. Our vehicles are worth even less and get the same treatment. […]

While the number of hedge fund types is virtually unlimited, all hedge funds are supposed to hedge risk (thus the name). Many investors believe this means that their investment with these managers will turn a profit when the rest of their portfolio is losing. The chart below proves this is not the case. The reason? […]

Much like Mark Twain, tales of the death of oil seem to be greatly exaggerated. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that by the year 2050, we will be using slightly more fuel than we are now, with little change from year to year (see chart below). Famed investor Warren Buffet increased his […]

One might think that $120 a barrel oil would be incentive enough to start drilling and increase refinery capacity. Still, it appears energy producers are taking politicians at their word when they say they want to eliminate their industry. When the stated goal in Europe and the United States is to phase out fossil fuels […]

As the saying goes, “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.” Right now, it appears that the United States, with its dollar strength relative to other countries, is king, which means we may be in serious trouble. The Fed continues to strive for a so-called “soft landing” where they strike the perfect […]

It is hard to come by good news lately, but as Warren Buffet says, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” Reports tell us that he has been following his mantra to the letter recently as he is finally spending his $146.7 billion cash held at the end of 2021. […]

We often get new traders to our site that fit a particular profile. However, it is rare that we have a number come on at the same time with as much industry experience as the following three.  Perhaps not surprisingly, they all started strongly out of the gate.  Absolute Return Capital Management – ARCM Ionic […]

It is time to consider the possibility that a recession is coming.  While few seem to be talking about it, signs increasingly seem to be pointing in that direction.  The confusion is justified as GDP growth accelerates, employment is at record lows, and the stock market remains mostly stable.  Perhaps I am a pessimist, so […]