By: Greg Taunt I know a lot about grains. In fact, I know a lot more than the average person about energies, metals, currencies, softs, and financials as well. I would never try to trade any of them for customers for a simple reason. I know other people who have done nothing for most of […]
Buying (Long) a Put Option:A basic option strategy to be familiar with and learn the advantages and disadvantages of is Buying a Put Option (Long Put). Buying a Put option is the opposite of buying a call option, in that a Put gives you the right, but not the obligation to sell the underlying futures contract at a specific […]
Cash Price – Futures Price = Basis (at a specific point in time) A producer’s decision as to when and how to market their crops or livestock can have as big an impact on their net bottom line profit as any production decision they may make throughout the year. Farmers today have more marketing alternatives […]
In my previous article we went over the first seven of 13 “mental blocks” to investing an average CTA or investor may butt up against throughout the course of trading or investing. In this article we will cover the remaining six, and for a re-cap of the previous article and prior seven “blocks” please go […]
A very quiet session today in the soybean market with soymeal taking a backseat to oil. The nearby soybean spread May 15 vs. July 15 strengthened even with abundant total U.S. supplies in the picture. We have now seen Chinese imports lagging the year ago pace for the last three consecutive months with the cumulative […]
Average CTA’s, investors, and people in general have an overwhelming desire to be “right”. Who likes to be wrong? You read and hear it every day from friends, fellow traders, (spouses – J), how important it is to be right, especially when they make a market prediction or, even worse when they put real money […]
When looking at a managed futures investment, a primary consideration should be whether a CTA’s program is offered either as a fund product or a single managed account. When investing in a fund, an investor subscribes to the fund and invests the minimum capital requirement or more. Here, the investor pools their assets with other […]
(Continued from April 28th 2015) Yesterday we went over the first 3 of the 6 key variables to trading, a CTA or Money Manager knows that you may not, and as promised here are the last 3 Variables. To recap the first 3 were (and to read the full descriptions I will include the previous […]
Most professional CTA’s look and think about trading in a much different way than an average trader or investor would, and the reason for this is not hard to understand. If a CTA is successful what it means to me is that they have dedicated their lives to the craft. Every trader wants to be […]
A non-high-tech measure of *historical volatility is given by the range of market prices over the course of a trading interval, this is usually a day or a week. The range of prices is defined as the difference between the high and the low for that given trading interval. If the range of the current […]
This paper addresses issues contributing to the underperformance of trend following programs during the investment environment of the past five years, a set of conditions that may continue for some time. As the “trend following” debate rages on, our ultimate concern pertaining to the current conundrum is whether trend following strategies are no longer profitable. While I review comments from a variety of leaders in the field, both data and comments focus more heavily on the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) space than on that of other fund managers. Nevertheless, details are applicable to a variety of strategies. It is my hope that a broader perspective will encourage investors to ask more pragmatic questions, ultimately improving their manager selection process.
Dr. John Lintner, a Harvard Professor, presented the seminal paper entitled “The Potential Role of Managed Commodity – Financial Futures Accounts (and/or Funds) in Portfolios of Stocks and Bonds” at the annual conference of the Financial Analysts Federation in Toronto in May 1983. The findings of his work, namely that portfolios of equities and fixed income exhibit substantially less variance at every possible level of expected return when combined with managed futures, remain as true as ever more than 25 years later. In this brief paper, we attempt to update Professor Lintner’s work by demonstrating that the beneficial correlative properties of managed futures presented in his research persist today. We also reintroduce managed futures as a diverse collection of liquid, transparent hedge fund strategies that tend to perform well in environments that are often difficult for traditional and other alternative investments.
Futures may be used to manage the risk of volatile investments and to capitalize on speculative opportunities associated with that volatility. But the fast-paced and increasingly sophisticated nature of futures markets sometimes renders it difficult for all but the most adept institutional and retail investors to take full advantage of these markets.