The Federal Reserve gave the markets a double dose of talk and economic data Wednesday but the market was already on a bullish tear and didn’t react much. The Fed released at 2 p.m. EDT the Beige Book Business Survey, which was based on data collected before April 7 and since the previous report on March 5. The report indicated economic activity increased in most of the 12 Federal Districts around the county.
Simultaneous, intense logistical snarls in both ocean-going shipments and North American rail transportation made for divergence between cash grain values and underlying futures contracts during the month. Part of what we do is forecasting how futures will act to realign regional imbalances, but this proved largely impossible as “uneconomic” dislocations abounded as never before: Cancellation […]
Overall the IASG CTA Index was down 90 BPS for March with 71% of managers posting their returns a/o this posting. This was a particularly difficult month with the Volatility VIX index reducing dramatically in early March only to recover and spike quickly which presented an opportunity for the stock index and options CTAs. Agriculture was also an area of focus with grains primarily staying flat and end of month spiking after USDA reports indicated larger supply than was predicted along with unstable conditions in Ukraine causing corn prices to rally end of month. Finally Livestock prices achieved all time high prices as a virus continues to take its toll in decimating hogs. There were some managers that were able to exploit these markets and others who struggled. Trend Following continues to struggle in these market conditions with the first quarter showing a -1.25% loss.
Manning & Napier, Inc. (NYSE:MN), (“Manning & Napier” or “the Company”) today announced that it will acquire the business and operations of 2100 Xenon Group, LLC, an alternative investment manager specializing in managed futures and global macro strategies for institutional and individual clients. The acquisition will enhance Manning & Napier’s alternative capabilities and provide increased product diversification to clients. The transaction is subject to certain regulatory approvals and is expected to close within the second quarter. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
Market Overview: Gasoline Current demand has climbed to a robust 9 million bpd which is 3.2% higher than the three year average At 9.84 million barrels per day, soaring U.S. gasoline production is a whopping 10.6% higher than the three year average As of this report, the NYMEX spot gasoline price is at $2.99/gal which is 7.6% below […]
Our methodology combines technical and fundamental assessment of the oil market and then utilize the appropriate trading structure that best fits the market scenario. While we are not “trend followers” per se, we do attempt to profit from directional price movement based on perceived imbalances in supply and demand in the oil complex. However, the pitfalls are two-fold: 1) that markets may not always follow fundamentals. We believe that prices will always revert to levels dictated by fundamentals but realize that index-investors and system-directed trading may dominate pricing during certain periods. 2) Volatility and market compression limits our ability to exploit those potential, directional profit opportunities. The following is an overview of the supply/demand fundamentals and our second quarter price forecast for crude oil, gasoline and diesel fuel.
Prudent investors like to know where their money is and how it is being used. They don’t want surprise announcements that the investment vehicle holding their money has lost 75% because of poor choices or because of a lack of management integrity.
This paper addresses issues contributing to the underperformance of trend following programs during the investment environment of the past five years, a set of conditions that may continue for some time. As the “trend following” debate rages on, our ultimate concern pertaining to the current conundrum is whether trend following strategies are no longer profitable. While I review comments from a variety of leaders in the field, both data and comments focus more heavily on the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) space than on that of other fund managers. Nevertheless, details are applicable to a variety of strategies. It is my hope that a broader perspective will encourage investors to ask more pragmatic questions, ultimately improving their manager selection process.
Most people know Ebenezer Scrooge as the cold-hearted, tight-fisted, “Bah, humbug!” guy from the Charles Dickens novel, A Christmas Carol. But was it really the “happiness of Christmas” that grated on Scrooge’s nerves, or was it something else that caused his foul disposition?
Certainly it wasn’t a lack of status that made Scrooge grumpy. He was rich, owned his own financial firm, and lived in a mansion. So, what was it that made him such a contemptible character?
Dr. John Lintner, a Harvard Professor, presented the seminal paper entitled “The Potential Role of Managed Commodity – Financial Futures Accounts (and/or Funds) in Portfolios of Stocks and Bonds” at the annual conference of the Financial Analysts Federation in Toronto in May 1983. The findings of his work, namely that portfolios of equities and fixed income exhibit substantially less variance at every possible level of expected return when combined with managed futures, remain as true as ever more than 25 years later. In this brief paper, we attempt to update Professor Lintner’s work by demonstrating that the beneficial correlative properties of managed futures presented in his research persist today. We also reintroduce managed futures as a diverse collection of liquid, transparent hedge fund strategies that tend to perform well in environments that are often difficult for traditional and other alternative investments.
Futures may be used to manage the risk of volatile investments and to capitalize on speculative opportunities associated with that volatility. But the fast-paced and increasingly sophisticated nature of futures markets sometimes renders it difficult for all but the most adept institutional and retail investors to take full advantage of these markets.
… or maybe more than one. If you’ve decided to include Managed Futures in your investment portfolio, the next step is choosing the right mix of Commodity Trading Advisors to help achieve your investment objectives. Just as managed futures help diversify an investment portfolio, different CTA programs can provide another layer of diversity within the […]
An alternative investment is an investment product other than traditional investments such as stocks, bonds or cash. Most alternative investment assets are held by institutional investors or accredited, high-net-worth individuals because of their complex nature, limited regulations and relative lack of liquidity. Some of the more common alternative investments strategies real estate investment trusts, hedge […]