Farmers will tell you that “rain makes grain”. That often holds true, unless the rain is accompanied with winter like temperatures during the planting season in the key growing areas within the U.S. As of May 13, the USDA is reporting that 29% of the corn crop has been planted as opposed to 85% last year. For soybeans, 6% of the crop is in the ground whereas 44% is the norm. A late planting makes the crops statistically vulnerable to late season frosts and freezes. Coming off a historic year off skyrocketing prices and volatility due to a drought and supply constraints, one would think prices be reflecting the concerning delay in plantings. However, we are not seeing it so far.
As we enter the final two weeks of the first quarter of 2013 it is remarkable to see where the market has come and how steadfast it has been in getting here. It was only two months ago that traders were exiting positions for the safety of the sidelines, clients were calling to reassert risk measures, and the media was producing panic stricken headlines shouting words like “cliff” and “recession.” I must say, the arguments at the time were equally coherent regardless of your market stance. In fact they still are despite the recent highs. It did indeed seem like the sidelines were the place to be as no one wanted to be the first to wander of the looming fiscal cliff. Then just as everyone returned to work from the New Year the market decided to assert itself and the S&&P rallied 35 points and closed on the high.
By Bryen Deutsch, Portfolio Manager, IASGPosted January 16th, 2013 One of the adages in the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade states “the best cure for high prices is high prices; the best cure for low prices is low prices.” Simple economic theory makes this saying understandable. When grain prices run to extreme […]
by Tyler Resch, Portfolio Manager, IASGPosted December 18th, 2012 As the temperature outside rapidly drops along with the volume in the market it is starting to dawn that 2012 truly is drawing to a close. We entered the year on the heels of record volatility, the largest bankruptcy the futures industry had ever seen, and […]
by Tyler Resch, Portfolio Manager, IASG A common theme among my prior newsletters and something I am constantly discussing with my clients is the need for diversification in your managed futures portfolio. There is substantial uncertainty in the market right now and although the Presidential election is behind us, investors seem to have as many […]
With summer winding down many investors are wondering what Q3 has in store for its final month. August was a relatively quiet month especially when we compare to August 2011 when the market had 3% swings numerous times a week. In contrast this summer in general has been a return to the summer slump we […]
As we approach the end of another temperamental summer market we are reminded again of how important it is to assure the diversity of our portfolios. Volatility has again become exaggerated, due largely to a market severely starved of liquidity. Although summer markets are historically thin, this summer has been more dramatically affected due to […]
Contents: S&P Announcement Debt Ceiling Philosophical Clash Fiscal Scenarios Impact on Markets Conclusion Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit rating oflong-term U.S. sovereign debt from a stellar AAA toAA+ based on “political risks and rising debt burden” with a negative outlook as of Friday, August 5.1Thisrepresents the first time that one of the three majorcredit […]
By Noble DraKolnFounder of Speculator Academy and Author of “Winning the Trading Game” and “Trade Like a Pro” Significant differences in the liquidity, leverage and costs of futures and ETFs that need to be understood before any investment decision is made. Gold has historically served as both a legitimate hedge against inflation and as an […]
By Michael S. Rulle Jr. There is only one history in financial markets. But there are almost an infinite number of time series one can analyze. Think of all the combinations of markets, units of time (for example, one second, one minute, one hour, etc.) and periods of time within which those units reside (for […]
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent government agency aimed to better protect the futures market from fraud or manipulation. It is responsible for recording and monitoring the trading of futures contracts on United States futures exchanges. The CFTC has the authority to fine, suspend, or sue the company or individual in a […]
by Andreas DiessbacherWhite River Group CTA Instead of looking forward through the windshield, would you steer your car along the highway by only looking through your rear view mirror? Of course not. But, in my opinion, that’s what you’re doing when you rely entirely on systematic trading to decide which commodity futures and options to […]
In 1971 President Nixon imposed a 90-day wage and price control program and other various expansionary fiscal policies in what became known as the “Nixon Shock”. More importantly, Nixon closed the gold window to prevent foreign governments that had been holding dollar-denominated financial assets from demanding gold in exchange for their dollars. By January 1976 […]