Hedge fund returns for July were generally negative with the only exceptions being equity hedge and fundamental value strategy indices. The class of uncorrelated hedge funds styles, event driven and special situations, under performed. Defensive styles like systematic CTA and global macro also posted negative returns.
With over half the year done, 10 strategy indices are negative and 7 are positive. The average for the negative strategies is just under 4 while the gaining strategy indices posted an average of 1.25 percent. For the negative strategies to move into positive territory, there will have to be at least a one to two standard deviation positive event over the next five months. This is possible but will require some market dislocations that can be capitalized by hedge fund managers.
After hundreds of discussions with hedge fund managers, I am still surprised that there is a fear of revealing investment processes under the assumption that someone will steal their ideas and intellectual capital. There are few investment styles that are truly unique and special. What is special is still strategy execution – the practical process of delivering returns. Skill is with the decision-making execution of information and strategy.
All hedge funds are not created equal as the return box chart shows for the post Financial Crisis period. There is a significant amount of dispersion across hedge fund styles. Over the period 2009-2018, the difference between the best and worst hedge fund category is almost 7 percent after we account for global equities and bonds.
The attraction to private equity and other less liquid alternatives is clear from the Guide to Alternatives by JP Morgan Asset Management. The return profile is much higher for private equity and debt funds than more liquid alternatives and global bonds; however, the dispersion in returns is multiples higher than what can be expected from other public categories.
