Tag: trading
Utilizing Market Price Range and Average True Range for Effective Trading Strategies
The range of market prices gives a non-high-tech measure of historical volatility* throughout a trading interval, usually a day or a week. The range of prices is defined as the difference between the high and the low for that given trading interval. For example, if the current day’s range lies beyond the previous day’s range […]
Oh, Wheat…
Wheat futures continued their downslide today with May15 sinking 15 ¼ cents in Chicago and settling at 4.70 ¼ and hitting a new life of contract low, this all despite Funds holding a record 100,000 contract short position. U.S. moisture has been beneficial with weather forecasts into next week for additional rains which is starting […]
Cattle: Futures Commentary
Bulls had something to cheer about to finish off last week’s trading in the Cattle markets after Thursday’s limit higher move followed by a $2-3 rally on Friday. However, the Friday afternoon USDA news was somewhat of a letdown, with the choice beef cutout coming in off $3.02 and the monthly COF (Cattle on Feed) […]
Energies: Outlook for the Upcoming Week
Friday’s choppy action was unsurprising as the refined products exhausted themselves on Wednesday and Thursday. After a quiet start to the week, RBOB gasoline shot up 13 cents and up HO 10 cents while Brent Crude popped $4. Interestingly, June WTI closed DOWN for the week as we saw the June Brent/WTI spreads widen to over $8. Last […]
Still Neutral Sugar
Sugar #11- May15 Futures – In yesterday’s trading session Sugar future values were strongly influenced by the exchange rate movement in Brazil. This is the first time since March of 2004 that the dollar quote fell below $3, closing at R$2.967 (-1.3%).
Crude Oil: Potential Target in Focus
Crude oil bulls had a brilliant day on Thursday, with the oil complex posting strong gains. Brent crude finished at $64.83while WTI closed at $57.66. With the market sailing above the 100-day MA last week, a review of the continuation chart gives a perspective on what the bulls might be targeting in the longer term. […]
Nat Gas EIA Preview – 22 April 2015
It appears shoulder season is coming to an end in the natural gas markets. NOAA’s 6-10 and 8-14 forecasts are showing above normal temperatures for the western half of the nation. These temperatures have the chance of shifting east giving the US its first taste of summer. Shoulder season is a time during the spring […]
Avoiding Costly Mistakes in CTA Trading: Key to Consistent Profits
Success in trading is measured in terms of the growth of the account balance. A CTA is not expected to play God and call every twist and turn in the market correctly. Some professional and proven CTA systems are only correct 25-30% of the time and still consistently pull huge profits out of the markets. […]
Energies: DOE Preview for Wednesday, 22 April 2015
Oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. June WTI finished the day down $1.26 at $56.62 a barrel while June Brent settled at $62.08 down $1.37 on the day. After being up each day last week and making new highs for the year, oil has been consolidating these gains early this week due to a lack […]
The Importance of Losing in Trading and Investing
I think this article on trading and the markets will slightly differ from anything you have read in that the main focus is “Losing.” So, why an article on losing? First, I believe that people learn the most from their mistakes or through adversity if they are willing to open their eyes and confront what’s […]
Is Selling Corn the Way to Go? Update: April 21st 2015
Corn values sagging in early trade, with the May 15 contract currently trading at 3.72 ¼ lower by 5 ¾ cents with the new crop contract at 3.96 ¼ down 5 cents, pegging the May 15 vs. Dec15 (Old crop / New crop) spread at 24 cents. The Funds continue to add to their short […]
Money Management & Contrary Opinion Trading
Contrary-opinion trading is perhaps the best solution to market madness and noise; it is a “thinking man’s” trading tool. A Contrarian is a person who takes an opposing view, especially one who rejects the majority opinion, as in economic matters. So, in a nutshell, if a CTA / Money Manager is trading as a contrarian, […]
How to Measure the Edge of Your Trading Entry Signals
When a CTA or Money Manager is testing or back-testing their entry signals, one of the most important aspects they look at is if the techniques they are using have a distinct “edge” for the time frame they are trading (short-term, swing, long-term, etc.). Understanding MAE and MFE Positive price movement is when the market […]