Tag: trend following

Success in trading is measured in terms of the growth of the account balance. A CTA is not expected to play God and call every twist and turn in the market correctly. Some professional and proven CTA systems are only correct 25-30% of the time and still consistently pull huge profits out of the markets. […]

I think this article on trading and the markets will slightly differ from anything you have read in that the main focus is “Losing.”  So, why an article on losing? First, I believe that people learn the most from their mistakes or through adversity if they are willing to open their eyes and confront what’s […]

Contrary-opinion trading is perhaps the best solution to market madness and noise; it is a “thinking man’s” trading tool. A Contrarian is a person who takes an opposing view, especially one who rejects the majority opinion, as in economic matters. So, in a nutshell, if a CTA / Money Manager is trading as a contrarian, […]

When a CTA or Money Manager is testing or back-testing their entry signals, one of the most important aspects they look at is if the techniques they are using have a distinct “edge” for the time frame they are trading (short-term, swing, long-term, etc.). Understanding MAE and MFE Positive price movement is when the market […]

Below is an excerpt from a recent interview with Sagat Capital. You can read it in its entirety at their CTA profile by clicking the Due Diligence link in the sidebar and completing the download request form. Market Philosophy and Trading Method IASG: What is your core belief about the markets? What have you learned about […]

Trend following is the most prevalent strategy utilized throughout the managed futures industry. What is the best way to objectively analyze, measure, and compare the performance of a particular group of trend following CTAs? Last fall we attempted to answer this question by publishing a research paper that introduced our own metric that measures and compares the “goodness” of similar managers’ returns. This article updates that original piece, and the measurements and ranking methodology that we initially introduced remain the same.

Placing undue focus on short term performance is a very slippery slope – it can be hazardous to one’s trading health. A seemingly ‘anomalous’ bad (or good) month may cause a manager to try to avoid (or replicate) his actions in that particular month going forward, when in reality, this ‘anomaly’ may have been nothing more than typical short term randomness. Yet by changing his actions the manager may lose some of his inherent ‘market edge’. It is not only dangerous to managers and the psychology they take into trading, but it is also dangerous to investors.

We are a little over half way through May and have approximately two-thirds of our CTAs updated through the month of April. Overall the index is flat and carried by agriculture and equity index manager trading for the month. Trend Following is so far posting a negative month with 73% of managers reporting. So overall on the year we are off to a moderate start as we get deeper into the second quarter. Without any significant trends we expect to see much of the same as the equity markets continue on the bull run. Agriculture should be particularly interesting as we head into planting season and this pig virus continues to play itself out.

Overall the IASG CTA Index was down 90 BPS for March with 71% of managers posting their returns a/o this posting. This was a particularly difficult month with the Volatility VIX index reducing dramatically in early March only to recover and spike quickly which presented an opportunity for the stock index and options CTAs. Agriculture was also an area of focus with grains primarily staying flat and end of month spiking after USDA reports indicated larger supply than was predicted along with unstable conditions in Ukraine causing corn prices to rally end of month. Finally Livestock prices achieved all time high prices as a virus continues to take its toll in decimating hogs. There were some managers that were able to exploit these markets and others who struggled. Trend Following continues to struggle in these market conditions with the first quarter showing a -1.25% loss.

This paper addresses issues contributing to the underperformance of trend following programs during the investment environment of the past five years, a set of conditions that may continue for some time. As the “trend following” debate rages on, our ultimate concern pertaining to the current conundrum is whether trend following strategies are no longer profitable. While I review comments from a variety of leaders in the field, both data and comments focus more heavily on the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) space than on that of other fund managers. Nevertheless, details are applicable to a variety of strategies. It is my hope that a broader perspective will encourage investors to ask more pragmatic questions, ultimately improving their manager selection process.

The stock market just hit an all time high and real estate values continue rising rapidly. Investors could not be happier. The day I refer to, of course, is October 9, 2007 when the S&P closed at its new record of 1565.15. What followed was a bull run in commodities culminating on July 11, 2008 when oil hit its high of $147.27 on dollar weakness and insatiable raw material demand from China. By January of 2009, oil dropped to almost $30 a barrel, the dollar was much stronger as seemingly everyone flocked to its perceived safety, and the worldwide economy would begin digging out slowly from the depths of the credit crisis. The S&P would drop below 700 points.