Category: CTA

Please enter a search term

Agriculture Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Grains

USDA Agriculture Grain Stock Report Analysis

Early 20th century British economist John Keynes famously stated “the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Lately, the agricultural markets have been defying logic and testing the solvency of many. A variety of market forces have been driving the meat and grain markets. With some key USDA reports closing up the first half of the trading year, the markets are celebrating the upcoming holiday with some fireworks of their own.

Agriculture Commodity Trading Advisor CTA

IASG May Performance Results

We have now reached the halfway point of June and have compiled nearly 70% of the manager data for May 2014. With five months of performance on record, the IASG CTA Index has turned positive YTD (Past Performance not indicative of future results). We anticipate this trend to hold for the remainder of the month as investors focus now on the remainder of this year. Here is a snapshot of the database as of 6/16/2014. The IASG CTA Index which comprises the managers with a minimum track record of 3 years performance and that performance must be client based. This helps to remove start up CTAs that are really in the strategy development and asset building stage. It is too early in their business to say whether they are going to be available for years to come. Agricultural and Option strategy CTAs are atop the list of performers and are helping keep the overall index in positive territory for 2014. Trend Following Strategies are poised to post their 4th losing month in the last 5 years.

Agriculture Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Grains Managed Futures

Kottke : A World Hungry For Meat

After three consecutive quarters of much-greater-than-expected demand for U.S. corn and soybeans, confounding every analyst’s projections and strengthening current-year prices sharply, a turn to excellent planting and growing weather in Northern Hemisphere abruptly collapsed forward prices for corn, wheat, and to a lesser extent soybeans. We confess bewilderment as to why, with world demand this year so vastly larger than expected, forward price should not be well-supported by demand continuing on this surprisingly steep trajectory.

Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Managed Futures

Goldman Management – CTA performance commentary

One of the biggest surprises this year has been the sharp decline in long term interest rates despite the Federal Reserve’s monthly removal of $10 billion in bond purchases to gradually reduce quantitative easing. Numerous market commentators have put forth explanations for the rate decline, touching on short covering, limited supply, economic woes, weather etc. A factor which has only been partly discussed is the correlation between European rates and US rates, especially the link between the German Bund and the US 10- year Treasury. These two have been loosely tethered to one another for more than 25 years. In the last sovereign debt crisis during the summer of 2012 Italian and Spanish long term rates stood at 7%, and have since dramatically declined, ending last year yielding 4.1%.

Agriculture CTA Grains Managed Futures

Bocken Trading – Weekly Grain Commentary Jun 6, 2014

All markets made new lows on favorable weather. Old crop beans rallied early in the week but cash turned weak and liquidation was seen ahead of the Goldman roll. Corn crop ratings were issued and were some of the best ever to start the growing season. Chicago continued into the abyss with demand lacking,harvest ahead, and generally favorable crops around the world. KC made new lows but bounced later in the week on poor harvest results/low crop ideas.

Agriculture Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Grains Managed Futures

Rosetta Capital – Conventional Wisdom

At the turn of the year the “consensus” was that corn was going lower, Bond prices were going lower (yields Higher) and the meats were going irregularly higher. Five + months into 2014, the bonds have rallied over 10 points and the funds have gone from being short 230,000 contracts of corn to being long 340,000+ contracts as of the beginning of May It took them over a dollar in price rally to get there but here we are! Now they are long, I think at an interim or possible top of the price action? Subsequent action since the May 9th report only reinforces my perception of that. What lies ahead is a chasm of time and future price discovery.

Commodities Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Managed Futures

David Martin Finds Soft Commodities a ‘Last Century’ Challenge

David Stephen Martin deals in commodities that people have a hard time doing without. Take that cup of fine Colombian coffee you just drank. Or that chocolate bar. Or that soothing glass of orange juice. Martin trades the soft commodities — coffee, cocoa, sugar, orange juice and cotton. And he has fun doing it, even though these commodities are some of the most volatile products: vulnerable to frost, drought, disease, insects, animals, guerrilla wars and occasionally unstable governments. They are grown and traded all over the world.

Agriculture Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Grains Managed Futures

IASG April CTA Indexes

We are a little over half way through May and have approximately two-thirds of our CTAs updated through the month of April. Overall the index is flat and carried by agriculture and equity index manager trading for the month. Trend Following is so far posting a negative month with 73% of managers reporting. So overall on the year we are off to a moderate start as we get deeper into the second quarter. Without any significant trends we expect to see much of the same as the equity markets continue on the bull run. Agriculture should be particularly interesting as we head into planting season and this pig virus continues to play itself out.

Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Managed Futures

Flyberry Capital: “Big Data” CTA new on IASG

Flyberry Capital LLC is a financial services firm located in Cambridge, MA that specializes in quantitative trading and data-intensive investment strategies. Founded in 2011, Flyberry has built unique, state-of-the-art tools that it uses to screen large varieties of global data. Our goal is to find non-random patterns in the behavior of markets. The firm is strongly positioned to master the explosion of data that is available in multiple domains: news alerts, weather data, commodity shipments, twitter feeds, and even geo-sensory data. With our unique tools and expertise, we are able to screen a broad universe of alternative data sets for opportunities that giant funds might largely ignore; identifying thousands of such strategies quickly. Flyberry uses rigorous, novel statistical and computational methods to identify arbitrage opportunities in the behavior of markets. Exploiting these inefficiencies allows the team to generate alpha while mitigating risk.

Commodity Trading Advisor CTA

NFA ‘deluged’ with responses to capital adequacy rules

The NFA has received more than 100 comment letters over a request for comment on contentious capital adequacy rules for CPOs and CTAs. NFA members and the wider public were invited in January to comment on the concepts of imposing a capital requirement on CPOs and CTAs as well as other customer protection measures. NFA spokesman confirmed it received 115 comment letters, with the “overwhelming majority” coming from the CPO/CTA community. The measures have provoked strong reaction from the industry and representatives for CTAs and CPOs to the NFA board of directors hosted a virtual town hall meeting to discuss them. Typically, opinion is collated and submitted by trade bodies, who have also made their concerns clear.

Agriculture Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Grains Managed Futures Uncategorized

New Agriculture CTA: Demeter Capital Management LLC

Demeter Capital Management is a registered CTA with a Livestock and Grain Trading Futures and Options Program. The Livestock and Grain Trading Program attempts to generate profits through the Advisor’s discretionary selection of futures and options trades in agricultural markets. Trades are selected on the basis of fundamental analysis, which is concerned with any factor that would affect the supply and demand, and therefore the price, of a given instrument. The Advisor’s market analysis tends to focus on seasonal trends and year-to-year comparisons. The Advisor absorbs and interprets a wide range of research on a daily basis, employing its principals’s combined 40+ years of experience in agricultural futures markets.

CTA Grains Managed Futures

Self-Direct Futures Trading or A Professional Money Manager?

Futures trading is a fast-paced, exciting business that attracts confident and assertive men and women who are convinced they can make a fortune, or at least a good side income, in one of the many futures contracts on the market. Some make it; many don’t. The percentage of self-directed traders who don’t succeed is extremely high. There are a lot of reasons why many new futures traders don’t make it on their own. One can enter the markets as a self-directed trader, handling everything involved. Another route is to utilize a professional money manager.

Commodities Commodity Trading Advisor CTA Managed Futures

New Softs CTA: Martin Fund Management LLC

Martin Fund Management (“the Fund Advisor”) is a Registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with a core focus on exchange-listed derivatives of global soft commodities (i.e. futures and futures options on coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton), using a Separately Managed Account (SMA) structure. The Fund Advisor seeks to generate outsized annual returns of 15%-20%, in excess of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI), employing short- to medium-term trading programs with low macro correlation and disciplined risk management. The Fund Advisor was founded by David Stephen Martin, who has over 22 years of commodity derivatives investment experience.

[Page 2 of 3 ]