I have an anecdote, but not an antidote, for whatever ails you; that is the problem. Stories or tales of past economic events do not solve investment problems. Investment tales may persuade as a device for action. They may provide useful background information, but they do not provide the basis for an effective solution.
A tale can be a description of a specific event, or it can be a generalization associated with an event. For example, an investment story can be about the Fed Chairman. “I made a lot of money by fading comments by Chairman Powell; he does not have a lot creditability. Look at his last speech.” Good story. Maybe true. But, a story is dangerous if it is not backed with data. Extrapolation from a sample of one is not effective decision-making.
Story can be useful but mainly in a case where there is no data set to help with the decision. Narrative is applicable for the unique situation, but only because there are no countable alternatives. Count similar events and focus on the odds not the narrative from one example.
After finishing off one of the wildest quarters of my trading career, April managed to take the cake. For those that missed it (not sure how you possibly could have), oil settled negative $37. The effects of this were immediate: risk barometers had to be recalculated, option models switched, and most importantly was the immediate […]
I am not a football fanatic, but I picked up this book on a recommendation and was amazed by Lombardi’s insights on leadership and management. Mike Lombardi is long-time football executive and media analyst. The book focuses on Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, but his conclusions could apply to any money management firm. A good money management firm is successful because it acts like a well-disciplined organization with a common purpose. That is no different than a competitively run sports organization. Lombardi finishes his book with five key recommendations for firm success that are worth presenting in bold.
After hundreds of discussions with hedge fund managers, I am still surprised that there is a fear of revealing investment processes under the assumption that someone will steal their ideas and intellectual capital. There are few investment styles that are truly unique and special. What is special is still strategy execution – the practical process of delivering returns. Skill is with the decision-making execution of information and strategy.