Competing head-to-head to outsmart others doing the same strategy is often a tough road. In trend following circles, giants like Man AHL, Winton, and Aspect dominate assets under management. This enables them to hire top PhDs, deploy better technology, test ideas rapidly, and outspend smaller players on sales and marketing. So how can a smaller player compete? They need to do two things well. First, use their size to their advantage. Second, they must approach the market in a unique way that is consistent with the philosophy but achieves results differently than the largest players.
Bowmoor Capital, based in London, excels at both. Led by CIO Gareth Abbot—a mathematician with deep statistical expertise—the firm combines a nimble structure with a focused, non-traditional take on the strategy.
Beginnings
In 2003, Gareth Abbot developed his trend following strategy with a simple goal: to grow his own account. This methodology appealed to his statistical background, and with a reasonable trade frequency, he could manage the program in his spare time while working his normal job. Over the subsequent years, he refined the strategy and traded it with his own capital, happily watching the returns. Unlike many aspiring CTAs, he did not plan on offering it to a larger audience, so he shopped for the best commission rates wherever he could find them and only traded private funds. When the team of what would become Bowmoor Capital approached him, they encountered a thoroughly tested strategy they could market. They launched for qualified investors in September 2022.
The Opportunity
I often tell managers their marketability depends on three factors.
- Length and quality of track record
- Manager pedigree
- Uniqueness of a strategy
New firms rarely deliver all three. Usually, we see solid returns in a short track record, and they build assets as they trade. In this case, they saw a system with an exceptionally long history that could be viewed through multiple market cycles, including the housing crisis of 2008 and the Fed policy shift beginning in 2009. Gareth’s background provided validation that his calculations were sound and the system testing was rigorous. Lastly, the approach didn’t just copy what the largest trend managers offered. It displayed some unique wrinkles that made it a potential fit, even for investors who already allocated to the space.
The Methodology
Traditional trend followers scan 120+ markets for the broadest opportunity set. Bowmoor takes the opposite view: too many contracts can dilute returns, as position sizing limits the impact of any single trade or sector. Instead, the firm restricts its universe to just 21 carefully selected commodity and financial futures. These provide diversified exposure across major categories while eliminating redundant overlaps. As an example, gold and silver display a high correlation to each other, so they might select one based on liquidity and risk/reward characteristics.
This focused set is easier to monitor, allows meaningful position weights, and supports dynamic volatility adjustments. Sizing varies by trend strength, underlying movement, and historical inter-market relationships. Bowmoor’s edge lies in extracting strong alpha from a select group rather than chasing every possible trend. As Abbot puts it, “I’m not obsessed with every trend. I’m obsessed with sustained and secure macro trends. Our system feels the same way.” While this means missing some moves, captured trends drive significant portfolio impact. After all, investors routinely skip good trades anyway.
The Goal
Unlike most firms, they define their target, doubling capital within 3-5 years. This requires between 14.87%-25.99% annualized rate of return. While they may not reach their ambitious goal, as alternatives like this come with significant risks as well, it serves as a measuring stick by which to judge their results over these periods. Live trading has delivered 16.64% annualized to date as of the end of December 2025, aligning well with the mission. Like most trend strategies, the correlation to the S&P is close to zero, potentially making them a strong diversifier for equity-heavy portfolios.
Summary
Gareth Abbot’s mathematical background drew him to trend following as the optimal way to trade his own capital. Though external management wasn’t the original plan, Bowmoor Capital now brings this refined approach to outside investors. For those already in trend following or considering an allocation, Bowmoor’s differentiated execution and promising results make it worth a look.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.
Illustration created by ChatGPT (OpenAI / DALL·E)