Who is looking at the economic data when the US is closing in on one of the most important presidential elections in the last few decades? Of course, what presidential election has not been important? Personality polarization has driven party behavior to extremes with little focus on policy proposals. Constant change to meet the current electoral audience has created uncertainty; however, the written proposals of the candidates provide clear policy differences.
Our global themes focus on the economics and not the opinions for an election that at this time is too hard to handicap. We have not changed our opinions much since the last month. Fed movement likely at the end of the year, the slow growth continuing, and the weight of presidential election, all create an environment where markets will stay within ranges.