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Advisor Commentary

September 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The last business day of September always brings the USDA’s report of September 1st U.S. grain stocks, the end of the previous crop year. This report has often yielded surprises that force a change in the last fall’s crop size and create significant moves in the futures […]

Alternative Investment Strategy

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

The Efficient Market Hypothesis, introduced by Benoit Mandelbrot and popularized by Eugene Fama, infers that investing markets reflect all information to determine prices. Therefore, if the Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, the current market levels should reflect that consideration. This also means that nobody should be able to “beat the […]

Alternative Investment Strategy

What Happened Next? Updates to previous blog articles.

We addressed the looming energy crisis in Europe in several articles, including the “War on Low Energy Prices,” It appears the day of reckoning is quickly approaching. However, they are choosing paths that I did not anticipate. In reaction to Russia closing the pipeline, the Europeans proposed two solutions; capping the amount that Russia would […]

wheat bombing
Advisor Commentary

August 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments We opened the month of August with all eyes on the M/V Razoni, the first vessel to sail out of Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February. The Razoni and at least 64 other vessels traveled safely through the corridors the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine agreed […]

Winter inflation gas
Alternative Investment Strategy

The “COVID-19 Bankruptcy Gap”

Where did the bankruptcies go? Despite the world locking down, the expected spate of business failures did not materialize as expected. In fact, they barely showed up at all. According to Matt Taunt of Taunt Law Firm, a Michigan-based firm specializing in the area, “Filings fell off a cliff in 2020 to lows not seen […]

Corn field
Advisor Commentary

July 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The themes of uncertainty and volatility that have been with us for most of 2022 did not leave us during July. Some root causes, like the war in Ukraine, have been with us for many months, but new risks and unexpected developments have impacted the agricultural markets […]

Alternative Investment Strategy

Unequal Treatment of Assets

If you find someone who thinks it is smart to go without insurance for their house, you might think they are insane. After all, our home is a large asset, protects our family’s safety, and provides the comfort of a roof over our heads. Our vehicles are worth even less and get the same treatment. […]

Alternative Investment Strategy

Not All Hedge Funds Hedge

While the number of hedge fund types is virtually unlimited, all hedge funds are supposed to hedge risk (thus the name). Many investors believe this means that their investment with these managers will turn a profit when the rest of their portfolio is losing. The chart below proves this is not the case. The reason? […]

big picture
Alternative Investment Strategy

Energy Basics 101

Much like Mark Twain, tales of the death of oil seem to be greatly exaggerated. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that by the year 2050, we will be using slightly more fuel than we are now, with little change from year to year (see chart below). Famed investor Warren Buffet increased his […]

Advisor Commentary

Oil market mid-year S&D outlook: GZC Strategic Commodities Fund May 2022 Report

Commentary by GZC Investment Management Global balances in crude have been tight in 2H21 but since then have been globally neutral to soft. Great disparities between OECD and non-OECD countries have been noticeable. In short, OECD has been drawing oil stocks rapidly until recently while non-OECD countries, particularly China, were constantly building stocks, allowing them […]

Corn field
Advisor Commentary

June 2022 Market Letter

Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The last business day of June always brings the USDA’s June 1 Stocks Report and updated estimates of Planted Acres. The combination of those two reports, one for old and one for new crop, make it the most important agricultural report day of the year. This year […]

Oil pump
Alternative Investment Strategy Commodities

Oil Drillers Won’t Drill

One might think that $120 a barrel oil would be incentive enough to start drilling and increase refinery capacity. Still, it appears energy producers are taking politicians at their word when they say they want to eliminate their industry. When the stated goal in Europe and the United States is to phase out fossil fuels […]

Alternative Investment Strategy

Soft Landing? Look Out Below!

As the saying goes, “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.” Right now, it appears that the United States, with its dollar strength relative to other countries, is king, which means we may be in serious trouble. The Fed continues to strive for a so-called “soft landing” where they strike the perfect […]

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