We know it is early as CTAs are still computing their monthly returns for May. With some early reports and our own proprietary tool Insight, we are seeing gains of >1% for the month of May. With continued downtrend in VIX (at or below 14) many managers trading indexes have been steady but under performing the overall broader S&P 500 index. Whereas managers trading commodities, such as coffee, cocoa, corn, soybeans, wheat, crude…just to name a few have seen a completely different story. Our interpretation is we will see a continued trend in volatility with respect to commodities and continued uptrend in equity indexes (past performance not indicative of future results). That being said, this upward trend in the indexes is going to pull back one of these days. The duration and extent are anyone’s guess. Now is the time to be more aware of “too much of a good thing”. The strength of this bull market for indexes has lasted quite some time.
(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Chart Courtesy: Finviz
With many more managers yet to update performance, our indicators are saying we will maintain a positive month of May and hopefully translating into a positive second quarter. As it stands today, the year looks to remain positive as well. In a few weeks we will provide a more comprehensive analysis of the sectors and emphasize a few managers that could be of prospective interest to some. We track the daily performance of many managers on IASG and can provide this analysis to qualified investors.